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Alarming global survey on AI and music
AI-generated music will take over large parts of the music market – and at the same time reduce the income of human music creators by 24 percent by 2028. This is the conclusion of the first global study on how AI-generated music will affect the music market.
/ 04/12/2024 / Willy MartinsenToday, the first global study on how generative AI will impact the market for creators in music, film and television is being launched. The study was prepared by consultancy PMP Strategy and commissioned by CISAC, the global umbrella organization for artists' collective management organizations.
The report states that the market for AI-generated music could grow from almost NOK 12 billion in 2023 to approximately NOK 187 billion in 2028. At the same time, songwriters, composers and lyricists could lose approximately NOK 117 billion in revenue by 2028. This corresponds to a quarter – 24 percent – of the total revenue of music creators at a global level.
– Tech companies are training AI technology on protected music without permission and without paying the music creators. Enormous amounts of money are being transferred from music creators to tech companies. This is not sustainable for either current or future generations of music creators, says TONO CEO Karl Vestli.
– It is urgent to establish laws and regulations that both facilitate technological innovation and further development of artificial intelligence, but also give music creators a fair position in the AI revolution, he says.
The report estimates that up to 20 percent of revenue from music streaming services and 60 percent of music libraries will go to music created by generative AI by 2028. Music libraries include music used in television and advertising, among other things.
Read CISAC's review of the survey on their website..
Also in the field of background music, it is expected that AI-generated music will take large shares of the traditional income from songwriters, composers and lyricists.
“For creators of all kinds, from songwriters to directors and screenwriters, AI can open up exciting opportunities. But we must recognise that generative AI, if not properly regulated, can also do great harm to human creators, their careers and livelihoods. Which direction this takes will depend on the choices politicians make in the legislative processes underway around the world. We must ensure regulations that protect creators’ rights and facilitate an AI world that safeguards human creativity and culture,” says CISAC President Björn Ulvaeus.
The report also measures the effects of AI on screenwriters, directors, dubbers and so on within the audiovisual sector, which includes TV and video production, film streaming services, etc. Here, the study calculates that the market for AI-generated content will be approximately NOK 562 billion in 2028, and that the income of creators within the area will decrease by 21 percent in 2028.
The study is the first to quantify how generative AI is impacting the finances of music and audiovisual creators globally. It combines qualitative and quantitative analysis, including case studies, to identify the areas of greatest impact, which are then translated into economic estimates of market penetration and creators’ lost revenue. The report also provides revenue projections for services and tools based on generative AI, which can be used to develop models for fair remuneration. The projections are based on market data, benchmarks, and interviews with experts, including copyright organizations, creators, and technology companies.
Click on the image to read and download the study:
CISAC is the world's leading network of copyright organizations. CISAC protects the rights and represents the interests of creators worldwide. TONO has been a member of CISAC since 1929. Read more at www.cisac.org.
PMP strategy is an international consulting firm focused on telecom, media, transport, energy and finance. The company has completed more than 4,000 projects from offices in Europe, North America and the Middle East. Read more at www.pmpstrategy.com
TONO is the Norwegian collective management organization for songwriters, composers, lyricists and music publishers, and is owned and governed by them. TONO has 43,000 members, and also represents millions of music creators from the rest of the world. TONO simplifies music licensing, and has a vision to create value for everyone who creates and uses music. Read more at www.tono.no.
Willy Martinsen, Communications Director, TONO, willy.martinsen (a) tono.no, mob 909 65,254