Frenchman Emanuel Legrand is a journalist, runs a consulting agency, is the editor of the Creative Industries Newsletter, and has previously been the US editor of Music Week and international editor of Billboard Magazine. (Photo: Ana Martinez Chamorro)
GLOBAL TRENDS IN THE MUSIC INDUSTRY:
What does one of the world's leading music industry analysts think about the state of the industry and where it is headed?
/ 29/05/2026 / Helene RognøyThis case is taken from TONO's annual and transparency report, which you can find here.
Frenchman Emanuel Legrand is a journalist and runs his own consulting agency, Legrand Network. He is the editor of the newsletter Creative Industries Newsletter, and has previously served as US editor for Music Week and international editor for Billboard Magazine. He also led work on CISAC's report on artificial intelligence and copyright revenues.
– A lot is different, but the fundamentals have not changed: You still need good songs, that's the basis for everything. That's why there has also been much greater interest in copyright income than recording rights, says Legrand.
He also points out that the democratization of music production and access to releasing music on streaming services has changed who is allowed to participate:
– A whole new segment of artists and songwriters has emerged who can now have a career in music.
The digital shift in the early 2000s triggered a dramatic decline in revenue that bottomed out around 2014. Streaming services reversed the trend, but now growth is starting to level off in mature markets.
“The growth has been astonishing, and it’s driven by music streaming,” says Legrand. Soon a billion people will have a streaming subscription, but the growth is now greatest outside established markets. Regions that were dominated by physical piracy in the 80s and 90s are now part of the global streaming economy, he says, noting that Latin America and Asia are growing strongly.
"The irony is that the Hong Kong management company manages more than the Chinese one. China is the fourth largest market in the world, but the copyright revenue is nowhere near the recording revenue. It's a market that needs to be solved," he says.
Legrand is also surprised that the physical market has held up:
– Ten years ago I would have said “forget it”, but that has changed. Many people think streaming subscriptions are too expensive, but are willing to pay for vinyl. You have music “on tap” in streaming services, but when you want something special, a “reissue”, an album you really love, many people want to own it physically.
2025 was the year AI music truly emerged as a threat to human-made music. Legrand nuances the picture.
– AI-generated music has not yet had a major impact on the global music economy, but its scope is enormous and will eventually eat into the revenues of human creators.
50,000 new AI-generated tracks are uploaded to streaming services every single day. Legrand believes this is polluting the industry, but is unsure of the long-term consequences.
– Anyone can prompt a song. What we don't know is whether consumers will listen to music they know is AI-created. I think most people probably won't care, as long as the music is okay. At the same time, surveys show that consumers are actually also interested in knowing whether music is the result of human creativity or whether it is made by a machine.
Several streaming services have started to label AI-generated music. Deezer and Qobuz are in the works, Apple is on its way, while Spotify is holding back.
– I think labeling will help raise awareness. Most people will probably want to know if it is AI music. But the question of remuneration is unresolved. Some believe AI music should be kept out of the remuneration pool, as Deezer does, while others believe it should be allowed on the services on an equal footing with other music. After all, it is music, says Legrand.
Legal and political processes are underway on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the Supreme Court recently declined to rule on whether AI-generated works can be copyrighted, and the matter will be resolved in lower courts. In Munich, a lawsuit is underway between TONO's German sister organization GEMA and the AI service Suno, a case Legrand believes the copyright holders will win, just as GEMA also won against OpenAI. In March, the White House launched an "AI Rulebook" that allows for the training of AI models to fall under fair use, but leaves cases of doubt to the courts.
In the EU, Legrand is cautiously optimistic.
– The EU Parliament's decision to develop legislation is a good compromise. AI companies can get a framework to operate within, while copyright holders and collective management companies get a basis for licensing. Collective management has been the oil in the system for over a hundred years. When licensing gets underway, the money will start flowing back to copyright holders.
He nevertheless warns against what he believes is a worst-case scenario:
– A compulsory licensing system where AI companies are allowed to use whatever they want for a symbolic percentage of the revenue, and where the rights holders have nothing to negotiate with.
Legrand has contributed to several CISAC reports and knows the management companies well.
– For years, people wondered what happened to digital revenues. The growth was so low, and master rights and copyrights were completely disconnected from each other. The Covid crisis became the accelerator. There is a clear difference before and after 2020. After that, you see digital growth in all countries, often at 35–40 percent annually. It was a “game changer.”
Even during the pandemic, revenues held up well, driven by a strong advertising market and solid deals from management companies. The live sector took longer to recover, but when concerts returned, the economy grew quickly again.
The geographical reach is constantly expanding. Vietnam now generates 20 million euros in rights revenue annually. India, which was a 5 million euro market ten years ago, will soon pass 100 million. In Africa, it has historically been difficult to get paid, but agreements with mobile phone companies have opened new channels: where there are transactions, there is money.
The music industry is consolidating at the same time. The three major companies Universal, Warner and Sony are investing heavily in the independent distribution platforms that have emerged in the streaming era, companies like CD Baby, Believe and TuneCore. Legrand believes that management companies need to think in the same direction:
– You can't do this alone anymore. You need the connection to local songwriters, but the back office can be shared with ten to fifteen other companies.
Investors buying up music rights, typically the catalogs of the world's most successful songwriters, has been a growing phenomenon in recent years. For investors, this is an asset class that does not fluctuate with war, unrest and changes in the world economy. The music publisher Kobalt was sold for several billion dollars on the same day TONO met Legrand. Concord is valued at six billion dollars. For Legrand, this is yet another confirmation of the lasting and real value of copyright.
A clear trend worldwide is that local repertoire is strengthening. This is happening in Italy, Spain and Norway. At the same time, music is traveling more across borders, even though the US still dominates globally. He emphasizes that it takes more than good music to succeed in countries other than the home market. Legrand remembers a poster that the record label Island sent to all its local offices in the 80s: "What happens if you don't promote?" The answer below was one word: "Nothing."
“Finding consumers is the hardest thing of all,” he says.
He still has great respect for those who try:
– Writing music is not the easiest job you can have. Coming up with a song, something people remember, is not easy.